tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-75433222940913318012024-03-13T09:05:39.590-07:00Shami WitnessWhen the warriors say "Qadimoun,Qadimoun,Ila Dimashq, Ila Quds" , sit back and take notice. Coz whether they can or cannot, you don't want to miss this.THIS.NOW.Bilad ash Sham!Shami Witnesshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12222068473093625087noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7543322294091331801.post-76991078406398069662013-06-15T04:21:00.000-07:002013-06-15T04:21:00.055-07:00On al Baghdadi's disobedience of Dr Zawahiri <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Overnight,the Emir of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), Abu Bakr
al Baghdadi, issued a <a href="https://twitter.com/Mr0rangetracker/status/345707106416082944">statement</a> in response to the letter from Al Qaeda Central
(AQC) chief Dr. Ayman az Zawahiri. It’s
a rebuttal to Dr. Zawahiri’s decree that commanded the Islamic State of Iraq and
the Jabhat an Nusra (JN) remain separate entities. <br />
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The gist of al Baghdadi’s statement is he abrogates Dr.
Zawahiri’s abrogation of the Baghdadi-founded Islamic State of Iraq and Sham(ISIS).
Yeah, that sounded about right.<br />
<br />
I won’t go into the details, but here are
the bullet-points:</div>
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1.This is an unprecedented , public disobedience by any AQ
affiliate towards the AQ chief. This has never happened after AQ started
absorbing local affiliates inside its network.</div>
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2. The statement was uploaded on the AQ-approved online
forums, but not through either Fajr Information Centre , nor ISI’s traditional
Al Furqan Media Foundation. As pointed by my friend Mr0rangetracker, this shows
AQC at least has control over its transnational information network.</div>
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3.Al Baghdadi isn’t overtly disrespectful to Dr.
Zawahiri. But a very important point is when Baghdadi says the ISIS Shura has
decided that this State should remain. He is overturning the order of the overall
Emir of the transnational jihadist network in favor of the decision of local Shura.
This cannot be over-emphasized. </div>
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<br /></div>
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This has evidently enraged many jihadi supporters who wanted
less confusion in the Syrian realm. I personally read this whole ISIS affair as
an artificially created crisis. Jihadist leaders have been so comfortable in
Iraq-Syria due to absence of threat of drone-like assassinations, that they
have taken the luxury of indulging in what are basically power struggles.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Some jihadis are saying the ISI leadership has been
infiltrated by unnamed foreign intel agencies. Others are accusing the newborn
Islamic State of Iraq and Sham being led by GIA-style takfiris. <br />
<br />
While we cannot say whether the first claim is true or not, it certainly does
not make sense. ISIS , and their Iraqi component has been ruthless in dealing
blows after blows to the Maliki troops recently, specially in the North, and in the
Anbar deserts. That rules out Maliki, Iran, and the whole Khomenist Shia axis. So
what, Turkey ? any GCC state? While certainly possible, there is a far more
plausible explanation : power struggle.</div>
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Also many JN supporters are accusing Baghdadi and his allies
of being takfiris. This doesn’t stand up
to facts. ISIS hasn’t called publicly any JN leader or soldier kafir. ISIS hasn’t
bombed Muslim(Sunni) populations anywhere, unlike GIA. There has been no reported cases of violence due to this quarrel. ISIS has continued
humanitarian activities started by JN like providing bread, water and other essential items to the population under their control in Raqqah , Aleppo. While the GIA
remains a classical case of jihadis turned into takfiris, none of similar signs
have been seen with ISIS yet.<br />
<br />
The picture is like this:in Raqqah, JN and ISIS can be considered one and the
same.In Deir ez Zor and Hasakah too, that’s the apparent case. But in Aleppo,
it’s clear that JN and ISIS are two distinct entities now, issuing statements
using separate names, but clearly co-operating with each other. We haven’t seen presence of ISIS in Idlib yet,
but lots of presence of quite militarily successful JN units. In Lattakia, we
have seen at least one suicide bombing carried out in name of ISIS; the status
of who is who in Lattakia is unclear. <br />
<br />
About Hama and Homs(specially in the iconic Battle of Qusayr), so far it seems
JN and ISIS labels and banners are being used interchangeably, and so are the
claims of responsibility.</div>
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In Damascus ISIS carried out at least one suicide bombing in
Harasta, though my general understanding is here also JN and ISIS names are used
interchangeably. For eg. the attack on the Shia international brigade Liwa Abu
Fadl al Abbas was carried out in the name of ISIS.<br />
<br />
Deraa is a special case. Long home to a quite cohesive Jordanian jihadi-trained
JN unit, they remained separate from the disputes. Jihadis in South are firmly
JN.<br />
<br />
It is also not entirely correct to categorize this inter-jihadi dispute in terms of
foreigner VS local. For example, Al Ghareeb al Muhajer al Qahtani, the chief
Sharia judge of Jabhat an Nusra and a prolific tweep, is an Iraqi. But he has
maintained quite a pro-status quo ,but stridently anti-strife position. Reports
claim that in Aleppo city and countryside, more than 70% of JN fighters joined
the ISIS. <br />
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But the dynamics of all these defections are quite
interesting. Though we have very few details, it’s clear al Baghdadi himself traveled
to Aleppo(from Iraq!) and threw the
gauntlet of the Game of Thrones inside Syria. He carried out sort of a pincer
mobilization(though non-violent) against JN chief al Jolani’s allies in the region.
He <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=elsaltador%20abu%20bakr&src=typd">appointed</a> non-JN jihadi commanders like Omar al Shishani of the powerful Jaish
Muhajireen wa Ansar in important positions. A lot of smaller but locally important
brigades were absorbed inside ISIS.</div>
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<br /></div>
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In effect, regardless of what AQC and others say, ISIS is a fact on the ground ( to borrow a term from the Israelis ;) )</div>
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<br /></div>
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In the midst of all this, Syrian Islamic Front and its Harakah Ahrar al Sham al Islamiyah group, increasingly appear as the most stable, well performing rebel cluster. They have excellent relations with JN.</div>
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While it is easy to think JN and ISIS would be at each other’s
throats any time soon, I think they would wait for the enemy Hezbollah and
Assad to be sufficiently weakened, before fighting with each other, if a
solution isn’t devised. Important to note is that, JN’s Al Manara al Bayda
Foundation has come back online, but not ISI’s al Furqan foundation.<br />
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What could this
mean? The answer, as usual, lies in the
near future. And the future is far from predictable.<br />
<br />
Note: The young scholar, <a href="http://www.aymennjawad.org/">Aymann Jawad al Tamimi</a> has meticulously tracked all
the JN-ISIS developments, worth checking out.</div>
</div>
Shami Witnesshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12222068473093625087noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7543322294091331801.post-42594941469465959672013-05-14T13:55:00.002-07:002013-05-14T13:55:30.933-07:00When Jihadists are the only ones left standing<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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Banyas massacre changed a lot of perceptions ,both home and abroad, on the
Syrian war. It clearly showed Assad’s will to destroy any semblance of Sunni
presence in Alawite dominated regions on and near the coast. Regarding
machinations by Western MSM, unlike Houla, Banyas was largely ignored. <br />
<br />
The reason being : this is a different time.<br /></div>
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This time, US, UK, France agree with Russia, for the need to
force a negotiated settlement on the Syrian rebels, which in reality will
likely lead to Assad prolonging his rule, and massacring Sunnis till the point
they are subdued. At near about the same time, the Syrian dossier was snatched
from Qatar and Turkey, under heavy US pressure, and given to the ‘geniuses’ in
KSA ,a move supported by the monarchies of Jordan and UAE. They are clearly
sick of despots being toppled.<br />
<br />
Coupled with this was the almost full drying up of all Croatian weapons
deliveries to southern rebels via Jordan. This led to rebels losing control of
the key Syrian city of Khirbet Ghazaleh, though the city has changed hands a
few times more since then.<br />
<br />
Also, as the arms embargo on the rebels was in full swing, Assad troops and
Hezbollah made some bold advances in Qusayr (Homs countryside),as in the South.<br />
<br /><b>
Enter Jabhat an Nusra</b><br />
<br />Jabhat an Nusra had very little presence in Homs previously; mostly carried out special
operations so the other rebels can move in. But recently, more and more local
Homsi rebels have been pledging allegiance to Jabhat an Nusra. Zu al Nurain
brigade is one of them.<br />
<br />
After regime troops advanced in Homs, Jabhat an Nusra suicide bombers inflicted
some tactical defeats on the regime, which due to the very nature of the war, was
temporary. <br />
<br />
Syrian rebels are putting up a tough fight in Qusayr, while facing the superior
weaponry and better trained soldiers of Hezbollah and Assad, and it is evident
that even Jabhat an Nusra has not stepped in as much as they are knee-deep in
the conflicts in Aleppo, Idlib and elsewhere.<br />
<br />
It is known among rebels that unless Jabhat an Nusra is totally confident of
its capabilities, it doesn’t jump headlong into a particular battle. That is
one of the reasons for their reluctance for more involvement in Homs.<br />
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But recent developments suggest JN is prepping for a major ,
all-gloves-off stand , soon.<br />
<br />
Like how they are expanding and taking control of the <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tC_F4Llqsy0">Deraa front</a>, along with
their jihadist allies in Harakah Ahrar ash Sham al Islamiya and others. This is
significant in light of the fact that Selim Idriss’ West,GCC supported Supreme
Military Command has failed to arm these southern rebels recently. Whom do you
think they will ally with now? <br />
<br />Also, videos of a self-styled group calling itself the Islamic State of Iraq and
Sham(ISIS) started floating on Youtube,even though Jawlani seemed to rebuff
Baghdadi’s call for the same.(h/t <a href="http://www.twitter.com/ajaltamimi">Aymenn Jawad al Tamimi</a> and <a href="http://twitter.com/Mr0rangetracker">Mr0rangetracker</a> )<br /><br />Then more and more Jabhat an Nusra fighters were spotted across Syria waving the Black Rayah al Uqab of the Islamic State of Iraq design, especially in the eastern regions.<br />
<br />
And then finally,today emerged <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=soEoaKz1X2s">this</a> video from United Media Centre of Raqqah, of
Jabhat al Nusra openly executing 3 Assad army officers, in broad daylight, in
Raqqah city, in revenge for the Banyas and Homs massacres.The speech clearly was signed
off in the name of the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham,not Jabhat al Nusrah.<br />
<br />
Loud chants of ‘Allahu akbar’ , and
approval from the locals followed.<br />
<br />
Jabhat an Nusra has clearly chosen this massacre as the launching point where
they drop all gloves and choose to fight with much more vigor, as I believe
future incidents will show. All these
unofficial videos of the purported Islamic State of Iraq and Sham seem a way of
softening up the public opinion that the united Islamic State is already a
reality everywhere JN-ISI territorial control is present. A formal acknowledgement will seal the
deal. Only this time it is apparent that JN’s crucial allies in the Syrian
Islamic Front are already aware of that.<br />
<br />
This is a huge opportunity for jihadist expansion. All the regime advances are
happening at the expense of the mostly SMC-allied brigades which
are losing ground, partly due to lack of weapons. A logical next step for these
hapless fighters would be to ally with the one force that very rarely loses
territory to Assad regime : Jabhat an Nusra and allied jihadists.<br />
<br />
The next few days are crucial. Keep up.</div>
Shami Witnesshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12222068473093625087noreply@blogger.com5